X-RISKS

Coordinating institution: INRAE
Partner institutions: Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, AgroParisTech, Ecole d'Ingénieur de Purpan, Aix - Marseille Université, ONF, INRAE, CIRAD, CNRS, IRD, IGN, CNPF.
Project leaders: Marielle Brunette (INRAE) & Eric Rigolot (INRAE)
Project duration: 6 years
Budget: €5m

The X-RISKS project stems from the observation that forestry risks are often addressed in silos, considered independently of one another. Research has typically focused on specific risks, such as the economic consequences of storms (e.g., timber market price drops), the environmental impacts of wildfires (e.g., carbon release, biodiversity loss), or the effects of geopolitical risks on forestry and timber supply chains (e.g., reduced supply, price increases, substitution effects).
However, in the context of global change, this compartmentalised approach is increasingly inadequate. Risks are becoming interconnected, correlated, cascading, and mutually dependent, both temporally and spatially. Addressing the challenge of multiple, interconnected risks is therefore of critical importance. It demands a paradigm shift, new tools, and innovative approaches to inform strategies and actions.

In this context, the X-RISKS project aims to incorporate the ‘multiple risks’ dimension into both the societal and scientific challenges associated with forest management.

To achieve this, the project focuses on five specific areas :

• The methodology of the multi-risk approach, from conceptual frameworks to quantification (WP1);
• Multi-risk monitoring systems (WP2);
• Multi-risk modelling techniques (WP3);
• Stakeholder perception and consideration of multiple risks (WP4);
• Governance and management strategies for multiple risks, including potential solutions (WP5).

To address these challenges effectively, the X-RISKS project brings together a wide range of French research institutions and organisations around a cross-disciplinary theme. It draws upon expertise from diverse fields, including the humanities and social sciences (sociology, economics, political science, geography, management science, law), life sciences (epidemiology, biology, ecology, entomology, pathology), and numerical sciences (modelling, statistics, mathematics).

The X-RISKS project aims to provide a cohesive framework for the French research community, actively engaging specialists in individual risks to collectively advance towards an integrated and systemic approach that accounts for interactions between risks.

The X-RISKS project has several objectives :

• To develop a shared framework and methodology for addressing the issue of multiple risks in forests;
• To enhance understanding of the interaction processes between risks;
• To quantify past, present, and future multiple risks;
• To establish a typology of stakeholders based on their behavioural characteristics towards multiple risks;
• To propose a portfolio of innovative strategies for the integrated management of multiple risks.

All these outcomes will serve to inform and support public decision-making.